Halting irreversible changes to Antarctica depends on choices made today

Halting irreversible changes to Antarctica depends on choices made today Skip to content Subscribe today Every print subscription comes with full digital access Subscribe Now Menu All Topics Health Humans Anthropology Health & Medicine Archaeology Psychology View All Life Animals Plants Ecosystems Paleontology Neuroscience Genetics Microbes View All Earth Agriculture Climate Oceans Environment View All Physics Materials Science Quantum Physics Particle Physics View All Space Astronomy Planetary Science Cosmology View All Magazine Menu All Stories Multimedia Reviews Puzzles Collections Educator Portal Century of Science Unsung characters Coronavirus Outbreak Newsletters Investors Lab About SN Explores Our Store SIGN IN Donate Home INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM SINCE 1921 SIGN IN Search Open search Close search Home INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM SINCE 1921 All Topics Earth Agriculture Climate Oceans Environment Humans Anthropology Health & Medicine Archaeology Psychology Life Animals Plants Ecosystems Paleontology Neuroscience Genetics Microbes Physics Materials Science Quantum Physics Particle Physics Space Astronomy Planetary Science Cosmology Tech Computing Artificial Intelligence Chemistry Math Science & Society All Topics Health Humans Humans Anthropology Health & Medicine Archaeology Psychology Recent posts in Humans Chemistry Machine learning streamlines the complexities of making better proteins By Skyler Ware18 hours ago Health & Medicine Home HPV tests won’t replace the ob-gyn By Jamie DucharmeFebruary 19, 2026 Artificial Intelligence Real-world medical questions stump AI chatbots By Tina Hesman SaeyFebruary 17, 2026 Life Life Animals Plants Ecosystems Paleontology Neuroscience Genetics Microbes Recent posts in Life Paleontology A mouth built for efficiency may have helped the earliest bird fly By Jay BennettFebruary 19, 2026 Animals Some dog breeds carry a higher risk of breathing problems By Jake BuehlerFebruary 18, 2026 Animals Regeneration of fins and limbs relies on a shared cellular playbook By Elizabeth PennisiFebruary 18, 2026 Earth Earth Agriculture Climate Oceans Environment Recent posts in Earth Climate Halting irreversible changes to Antarctica depends on choices made today By Carolyn Gramling8 hours ago Climate Snowball Earth might have had a dynamic climate and open seas By Michael MarshallFebruary 19, 2026 Oceans Evolution didn’t wait long after the dinosaurs died By Elie DolginFebruary 13, 2026 Physics Physics Materials Science Quantum Physics Particle Physics Recent posts in Physics Physics Physicists dream up ‘spacetime quasicrystals’ that could underpin the universe By Emily ConoverFebruary 17, 2026 Physics A precise proton measurement helps put a core theory of physics to the test By Emily ConoverFebruary 11, 2026 Physics The only U.S. particle collider shuts down – so a new one may rise By Emily ConoverFebruary 6, 2026 Space Space Astronomy Planetary Science Cosmology Recent posts in Space Astronomy This inside-out planetary system has astronomers scratching their heads By Adam MannFebruary 12, 2026 Space Artemis II is returning humans to the moon with science riding shotgun By Lisa GrossmanFebruary 4, 2026 Physics A Greek star catalog from the dawn of astronomy, revealed By Adam MannJanuary 30, 2026 News Climate Halting irreversible changes to Antarctica depends on choices made today Antarctic Peninsula models show emissions levels will shape ice, seas and wildlife A new study examining possible future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios forecasts the range of fates for the Antarctic Peninsula, and for Antarctic wildlife like these elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Bethan Davies By Carolyn Gramling 8 hours ago Share this:Share Share via email (Opens in new window) Email Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook Share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit Share on X (Opens in new window) X Print (Opens in new window) Print Listen to this article This is a human-written story voiced by AI. Got feedback? Take our survey . (See our AI policy here .) The Antarctic Peninsula is an early warning system for the southernmost continent when it comes to climate change. And the prognostications are grim — but it’s not yet too late to avoid irreversible changes, researchers report February 20 in Frontiers in Environmental Science. In the new study, the team first documented how the peninsula is already transforming as the planet warms, and then assessed how different amounts of warming by 2100 could alter the peninsula’s fate, including its marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land and sea ice, ice shelves and extreme weather events. Those global warming estimates — of 1.8, 3.6 and 4.4 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial times — are based on three different what-if scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions.  Sign up for our newsletter We summarize the week's scientific breakthroughs every Thursday. “The Antarctic Peninsula is really the alarm bell for the continent,” says Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University in England. It’s a relatively tiny piece of the continent in area, but is disproportionately visible due to fisheries, tourism and scientific research. “Changes that happen in the Antarctic Peninsula also don’t stay in the Antarctic Peninsula,” Davies says. Retreating glaciers in the southern part of the peninsula can make glaciers in West Antarctica more vulnerable to melting. Decreased sea ice around the peninsula increases warming around the Southern Ocean more broadly. That, in turn, can slow down the formation of a water mass known as Antarctic Intermediate Water, which links the Southern Ocean to global ocean circulation. Less sea ice also means fewer krill (Euphausia superba), the tiny crustaceans at the base of the Southern Ocean food web. In 2019, with Earth’s average temperature about 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial times, the Antarctic Peninsula was already seeing significant changes. Relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water swirling near the peninsula was speeding up melting; several massive chunks of ice had broken off from the mainland glaciers. But the nearby ocean food web, dependent on sea ice and krill, was still intact. “Unfortunately, we’re now at about 1.4 degrees C of warming,” Davies says. Limiting future warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C has been targeted a best-case scenario for the planet. In November, the U.N. Environment Programme stated that there is now zero percent chance that the world will stay in that limit, as nations continue to not meet their own emissions reduction targets. “So we were motivated to look at the Antarctic Peninsula under multiple scenarios.” Under a best-case scenario of 1.8 degrees C of warming by 2100, that ocean food web shrinks as winter sea ice shrinks and ocean temperatures rise. Wildlife populations begin to shift: Species less dependent on krill and sea ice, such as fur seals, elephant sea